Supinie: Illini recruiting class big step in the right direction
CHAMPAIGN – Through four years and three consecutive seasons with no NCAA Tournament berth, Illinois coach John Groce might just be finally hitting his stride.
Is it too little or too late? No one will know that until the season ends next spring, but Groce and his staff put together one of the top recruiting classes in the country just when he needed it the most. While Groce’s future still probably revolves around what happens this season – especially Selection Sunday – this might be the start of something good.
“I’m sure John Groce and his staff sure hope so,’’ said Rivals.com national basketball recruiting analyst Eric Bossi. “Let’s see what happens this year. If things turn around on the court and they find success, then this could really be a preview of good things.’’
It’s still the big question surrounding Illini basketball. Is this Groce’s last chance to make it happen? It sure seems that way. Everyone expects a fourth consecutive season without a slot in the NCAA bracket would leave Groce looking for work. If he could get the Illini over the hump this winter, then this recruiting class could change things for the Illini.
Does the present help the future for Groce and the Illini? We likely won’t know until Selection Sunday.
“They haven’t made the NCAA Tournament for three years in a row,’’ said Big Ten analyst Tom Dienhart. “That’s not happened since the 1970s. Everybody knows what has to be done this year. There’s a sense of urgency there. It looks like Groce has things set up to have a breakthrough year. With players coming in, they could possibly get to be a consistent upper division Big Ten team.
“If they could get back on track and get to the dance and fold in some top recruits, they could put together a good run.’’
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Recruiting season and hoops season are interrelated when it comes to Groce’s future. Yet this is the first big step in the right direction.
Illinois already has commitments from five-star center Jeremiah Tilmon from East St. Louis, four star guards Da’Monte Williams of Peoria and Trent Frazier of Florida, and three-star guard Javon Pickett from Belleville.
The Illini are still chasing Kris Wilkes from North Central High School in Indianapolis and Mayan Kiir, a prep schooler in Florida. Wilkes will decide between Indiana, UCLA and Illinois while Kiir has Illinois and Virginia Commonwealth among his finalists.
The Illini class is currently ranked No. 5 by Rivals.com. Signing day is Nov. 9. It’s a great move forward for a coach who was rated as one of the best recruiters nationally while he was an assistant at Ohio State. Plenty was expected in Groce’s recruiting, though it hadn’t materialized until this year. Just when he needed it the most, Groce looks like he hit a full-court desperation heave.
“I don’t think it’s an upset,’’ Bossi said. “When he took that job, people expected him to recruit well. Maybe he hadn’t yet recruited like people thought he would. There were some bumps in the road off the court. That stuff isn’t easy to overcome when you’re recruiting. If there’s any kind of surprise, they were able to weather the off the court stuff and not let it negatively impact with this class. What we’re seeing is they’ve been able to establish themselves now. They’ve proved to guys they wanted to keep kids home. It takes time to build trust with people.’’
Wilkes might be a long shot, Bossi said, because it’s hard for Indiana recruits to turn down the Hoosiers for one of their rivals. That said, Groce and assistant coach Jamal Walker were able to build a strong relationship with Wilkes.
“Illinois has done a great job with Wilkes,’’ Bossi said. “He took an unofficial there that frankly wasn’t the greatest visit. His official visit went so well and I think he took a step back and said, ‘Maybe I better take a real good look at Illinois.’ Walker and Groce did as good of a job in building a relationship with him as anybody. But if he doesn’t go to Indiana, it’s awful tough to pick a rival program.’’
Illinois players have gone to Indiana. Few of them have left Indiana for the Illini. Sophomore guard Jalen Coleman-Lands was the first in decades.
Bossi doesn’t see much of a chance of the Illini class to splinter before signing day. Rumors circulated about Tilmon jumping to St. Louis U along following the commitment of Jordan Goodwin to the Billikens, but there have been no hints of that happening, Bossi said.
“Back maybe a couple months ago, there were rumbles out there that perhaps Tilmon would reconsider things a little bit,’’ Bossi said. “That hasn’t happened to this point.’’
Basketball isn’t like football, Bossi said. If a player is committed for a year, there’s usually no late switch.
“I wouldn’t foresee issues with this class,’’ he said.
Does Illini AD Josh Whitman give Groce more time because of this recruiting class? No one knows, but the heat will turn up on Groce if he can’t get the Illini back in the NCAA’s. With a non-conference schedule that will likely rank the Illini low in the Sagarin ratings for strength of schedule, the NCAA bid probably all comes down to reaching nine or 10 wins in Big Ten play.
With Big Ten media picking Illinois anywhere from fifth to 11th or lower, it could be close. Illinois is a middle of the pack team, Dienhart said. At the top, there’ s Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana and Purdue. At the bottom sits Nebraska, Rutgers and Minnesota.
The Illini “could be slotted anywhere from fifth to 11th,’’ Dienhart said. “Anything’s possible.’’
So the Illini battle with Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, Iowa and Northwestern.
“Illinois has to be pegged into those types of teams,’’ Dienhart said. “Maybe at best a .500 team. Anything over .500 might be exceeding expectations. Middle of the pack sounds about right.’’
“It could be close,’’ Dienhart said. “A lot of it is how competitive they are in those losses.’’
If it doesn’t happen for the Illini, there could again be mitigating circumstances to consider, such as this recruiting class or injuries. But the pressure is mounting.
“It’s easy to say 9-9 and make it to the tournament or else,’’ Dienhart said. “There are so many factors that go into making those decisions (on the coaching staff). It looks like this is a good chance to get back on track.’’
The Illini did what they needed to do in the offseason. Now let’s see if they can get it done on the court.
John Supinie is a columnist for Orangeandbluenews.com. During the day, he’s an Audi Brand Specialist at Green Audi in Springfield. Call or text him at 217-377-1977 if you’re looking for an Audi, Volkswagen, Toyota or preowned car. Ask for the Illini deal.
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