Advertisement
Published Nov 11, 2016
Preview: Illini travel to No. 7 Wisconsin
Doug Bucshon  •  OrangeandBlueNews
Publisher

MORE: Illinois game notes | Behind enemy lines

Coming off a home win over Michigan State, the Fighting Illini (3-6, 2-4 B1G) head to Wisconsin Saturday to face the seventh-ranked Badgers (7-2, 4-2 B1G) at Camp Randall Stadium. Kickoff is set for 2:30 pm CT with the game televised on ESPN2.

Saturday marks the 83rd meeting between the Fighting Illini and the Badgers. Wisconsin holds a slim 39-36-7 edge in the all-time series and has won 10 of the last 11 meetings. Illinois’ lone victory in that stretch was a 31-26 win over the fifth-ranked Badgers in Champaign in 2007. Illinois is 16-21-4 all-time against Wisconsin in Madison.

Advertisement

WISCONSIN PLAYERS TO WATCH

T.J. Watt, junior, linebacker. Watt, a tight end until making the switch to linebacker prior to the start of fall camp in 2015, leads the Badgers with 9.5 TFLs and 7.0 sacks in his first season as a starter at outside linebacker.

Derrick Tindal, junior, cornerback. Sojourn Shelton, senior, cornerback. The Badgers’ cornerback have combined for the most passes defended of any pair of teammates in the FBS. Together, they have 20 PBU’s and five interceptions.

Corey Clement, senior, running back. Clement as rushed for 100-plus yards in three of the Badgers’ last four games and owns four 100-yard performances on the season.

ILLINI PICKS TO CLICK

Dawuane Smoot, senior, defensive end. Smoot has been a man on a mission, playing like a beat in recent weeks and solidifying himself as a legit high NFL Draft pick. He needs some help from the guys on the inside, but Smoot is disruptive whether or not he’s getting sacks.

Kendrick Foster, junior, running back. Foster’s is one the best stories of the season for Illinois. Not only can Foster grind out tough yards inside, he busts off long runs at opportune times for the Illini. Foster earned the starters job with his effort and his play, and he’s now the most important Illinois weapon headed down the stretch.

Stanley Green, freshman, safety. Green did not play in the first two games. He has started the last four games, making 31 tackles and forcing three fumbles in those games. Green is the type of big hitter that was a staple of Lovie Smith defenses in the NFL. He’s gaining valuable experience as a true freshman. We loved Green’s smarts and his leadership at East St. Louis, and it’s carried over.

Jamal Milan, freshman, defensive tackle. Milan has come on to make four starts, 19 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, two forced fumbles, two hurries and one sack in his last five games. Milan has all the tools to be a force for the next several years for Illinois, and is now their top interior defender.

WHEN ILLINOIS HAS THE BALL

Will Illinois score? That might be the biggest question heading into this tough road contest in Madison. The Badgers’ defense is for real. It ranks No. 11 in the country in total defense and No. 3 in scoring defense. Opponents convert just 28.80 of third opportunities, and the Badgers allow TD’s on just 41.67 percent of opponent red zone chances.

Though he’s inconsistent with his accuracy, Illini quarterback Jeff George Jr. made the throws that he had to make to get the win over Michigan State. Things get tougher this week, but George has progressed since taking over as the starter in week 7 against Michigan. George will be under more duress this week. The game should be slowing down for him some, however. He had his trial by fire against Michigan.

Illinois had six 3-and-out possessions last week. A repeat performance on Saturday and the game turns into a laugher. It starts with field possession. Illinois needs more from its special teams. The kicking and return games set up Illinois with its back to the wall all too often against Michigan State, especially in the first half. Somehow, the Illini have to find a way to sustain a few drives, kill the clock, and make the Wisconsin defense work for the win.

There’s no word yet on whether junior receiver Malik Turner (concussion) is a go for Saturday. That likely again leaves Sam Mays as the primary target downfield. We have always liked Mays – he’s a long strider and good athlete in the mold of former Illini Geronimo Allison. Maybe he didn’t earn playing time in practice. It’s hard to say, since most practices are closed. Once again, Mays is in the spotlight and he faces a much tougher secondary this week.

WHEN WISCONSIN HAS THE BALL

As good as Wisconsin is, its lack of point production leaves the Badgers vulnerable to upsets. Rutgers is the only team in the Big Ten that has scored fewer points in conference games. The Badgers played with fire in a narrow win over Georgia State in Week 3. In the unlikely event that the defense has a subpar performance, Illinois has a chance, albeit a slim one.

Wisconsin is trying to get its identity back on offense. That means relying heavily on the power running game. The Badgers handed the ball to Corey Clement 32 times last week in a 21-7 win over Northwestern. Clement has now rushed for over 100 yards in three of his last four games. The only hiccup was two weeks ago against Nebraska, when 41 of Clements’ 81 rushing yards came on one play.

The Badgers rotate quarterbacks. Lefty freshman Alex Hornibrook will likely get the bulk of the snaps. Hornibrook has had his moments and can make plays, but Wisconsin won’t rely all that much on his arm. He can float the ball at times, so the Illini freshmen safeties may have opportunities for picks. Senior Bart Houston is more efficient, but a lesser athlete.

Slowly but surely, the Illinois defense is establishing an identity. The energy and hunger has unexpectedly come from freshmen, who accounted for 34 tackles in the win over Michigan State. (Patrick Nelson 9, Dele’ Harding 7, Stanley Green 6, Frank Sumpter 6, Cameron Watkins 5, Jamal Milan 1.) Nelson has racked up 63 tackles at safety and ranks fifth in the Big Ten in tackles during conference games.

KEYS TO THE GAME

Score first – George gained confidence as the game moved along last week, and the Illini ended on a high note. Keep it rolling. If Illinois gets down early, it’s a long day in Madison. Score first and quiet the Camp Randall crowd.

Field position - Illinois special teams needs to bounce back after a tough week vs. MSU. Illinois is getting very little from the return game. Punter Ryan Frain needs consistency. Illinois must give the Badgers a long field.

Chunk plays - It’s very unlikely that Illinois can grind it out against the Badgers’ defense – no one has been able to do that. A couple of big strikes are essential. Another Kendrick Foster run. Sam Mays deep over the top.

The next step – Illinois has shown steady progress with its run defense. Freshmen have given the D some energy and they slowed down MSU considerably and forced fumbles. The next step is to tackle better one-on-one.

PREDICTION

Wisconsin has a special defense and Illinois has struggled to consistently move the football and put points on the board. You have to consider the opponent last week – a struggling MSU squad that isn’t the same team from years past. Maybe Illinois turned the corner in that game and will challenge in this game. But more likely, Wisconsin will shut down the Illinois offense and score enough points to get a comfortable win.

Wisconsin 27 Illinois 7