MORE: Illini depth chart | Illinois game notes | Wes Lunt ready to lead Illini | Behind enemy lines
The Lovie Smith era formally kicks off on Saturday as the Illini host the Murray State Racers from the Ohio Valley Conference. Kickoff is set for 2:42pm CT, with the game televised on BTN. The game will also be streamed live on BTN2Go.com.
Saturday will be the first meeting between the Fighting Illini and Murray State. Illinois is 15-0 all-time against FCS opponents and is averaging over 42 points per game against FCS foes with an average margin of victory of over 28 points per game.
Illinois players to watch: QB Wes Lunt. RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn. WR Malik Turner. OT Christian DiLauro. DE Dawaune Smoot. MLB Hardy Nickerson
Murray State players to watch: QB KD Humphries. RB Mark Dodson. WR Jesse Blackburn. LB Jonathan Jackson. CB D’Montre Wade.
When Illinois has the ball
The Illinois offensive line averages 303 pounds per man, nearly 50 pounds heavier than the average weight on the Murray State defensive front. If Garrick McGee wants to establish the run – and we know he does – the time is now to do it. The Racers finished 7th in the OVC last season in rushing defense, allowing 197 yard per game and 4.6 yards per carry.
Northern Illinois and Western Michigan both rushed for over 230 yards against Murray State in 2015. Look for the Illini backs to average over 6.0 yards per rush on Saturday and break off a few chunk plays. Four different running backs should get carries – Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Kendrick Foster, Reggie Corbin, and freshman Tre Nation.
Saturday is a big game for the Illinois offense, whether the matchup looks that way on paper or not. It’s their first time facing an unfriendly opponent with a new approach and new faces in key roles.
Efficiency is the watchword. The offense needs to click - execute, limit mistakes, and move the chains consistently. Our attention will be on new starting guards Nick Allegretti and Gabe Megginson. Are they opening holes for Vaughn on the inside? Are they missing any assignments? It will also be interesting to see how many touches the fullbacks and tight ends get. If things go to plan, this is a dressed rehearsal for North Carolina, and OC Garrick McGee should learn a lot about his unit. All of the bugs have to be worked out before the Tar Heels visit Memorial Stadium in Week 2.
The Racers will line up a 4-2-5 defense that features hybrid positions, complete with gimmicky position names like “Stud”, “Slash”, and “Jack”. As we saw with Illinois defenses during the last coaching regime, the 4-2-5 is probably not a good system to deploy against a typical Big Ten opponent, and Illinois is more Big Ten-like in their scheme this year. Illinois should get favorable matchups.
Scouts from future Illini opponents will be very interested to see the game film following Saturday’s contest. They have little idea what to expect from Illinois. Still, McGee likely won’t hold anything back. We expect him to use the entire playbook and set an early tone to the season.
With that in mind, QB Wes Lunt should connect downfield on some play-action passes, a wrinkle we haven't seen in recent years. Lunt worked the deep middle effectively during preseason practices. The MSU secondary is experienced, but the Racers had the worst passing defense in the OVC in 2015.
When Murray State has the ball
It’s all about KD Humphries. The senior quarterback has a chance to take over as the Racers’ all-time leader in all four major passing categories (attempts, completions, yards and touchdowns) this season. Humphries passed for 3,778 yards and 22 touchdowns in 2015. The Illini game plan will be to apply pressure to Humphries without blitzing, a staple of the Tampa-2 defense.
It remains to be seen if Murray State coach Mitch Stewart makes some adjustments to his all-out spread offense. Athletically, the Illini defensive line will have an advantage over several opponents this season – they’re one of the top DL units in the Big Ten. With three new starters on the offensive line, the Racers won’t be able to protect Humphries in those four and five wide receiver sets. The Racers’ tackles will need help containing Dawaune Smoot and Carrol Phillips coming off the edge.
Humphries can run around and make plays, but will Stewart want his star quarterback under siege in a game that Illinois scheduled as a sure win? I don’t think MSU will want to enter OVC conference play with Humphries battered and bruised.
Murray State passed the ball on 60% of their offensive plays last season, and only averaged 3.6 yards per rush. If they do try to establish the running game to take some pressure off of Humphries, it will be by spreading the Illini defense out horizontally and getting Ole Miss transfer running back Mark Dodson the ball in space. The Illini outside linebackers will need to be solid tacklers one-on-one. We know that MLB Hardy Nickerson will be.
Until they started game-planning for the Racers, the Illini defense hadn't practiced much against the up-tempo spread. The defensive brain trust of Lovie Smith and Hardy Nickerson didn’t see this scheme in the NFL. Two things to expect; an adjustment period early in the game, and a deep rotation along the defensive front. We will also see a lot of 5-DB sets, with Chris James lining up at the nickel spot.
Humphries will be throwing into a rebuilt Illini secondary. He’s likely to have his most success on the deep and intermediate routes, if he has time to set up and throw. We feel good about what the Illinois corners can do covering the flats, but the deep outside is a concern. Senior cornerback Darius Mosely isn’t great when he has to flip his hips and run, and the strong safety spot was still up for grabs late in training camp. The speedy but inexperienced Julian Hylton appears to have won the job.
Keys to the game
Humphries harassment – Illini defensive line will try to make Murray State quarterback KD Humphries very uncomfortable.
Wide open spaces – Against an FCS defense, we want to see Illini play-makers getting separation.
Mismatches – Power 5 players vs. FCS players at every position. Exploit it, especially up front.
Seeing red – The Illini offense was bad in the red zone a year ago. Will they establish a new identity?
Scouting the spread – We will see how well DC Hardy Nickerson gamed-planned against the up-tempo, spread offense.
Prediction
Illinois 42 Murray State 13. We expect the Illini to be workman like on offense and aggressive on defense. If Murray State turns it over, the Illini could run up the score. With the talented KD Humphries throwing the ball around, it could get fun. But in the end, Illinois has too much beef and athleticism in the trenches. The Illini raise their record to 16-0 against FCS opponents, and extend their consecutive home-opening winning streak to 19 games.
