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Published Nov 4, 2016
Preview: Illini host Michigan State
Doug Bucshon  •  OrangeandBlueNews
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MORE: Illinois game notes | Behind enemy lines

The Fighting Illini (2-6, 1-4 B1G) are back home again on Saturday, as they take on the Michigan State Spartans (2-6, 0-5 B1G) at Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is set for 11 a.m. CT with the game televised on ESPNews.

Michigan State leads the all-time series against Illinois, 26-17-2. Illinois is 1-9 against Michigan State in the last 10 meetings dating back to 1998. Illinois has not played Michigan State since Oct. 26, 2013, a 42-3 win for the Spartans in Champaign.

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MICHIGAN STATE PLAYERS TO WATCH

Malik McDowell, junior, defensive end. A preseason All-America and the only returning starter on the defensive line from a year ago. Leads the unit this season with 34 tackles, including seven for losses.

R.J. Shelton, senior, wide receiver. Ranks fourth in the Big Ten in all-purpose yards (134.5 ypg), fifth in the Big Ten in receiving yards (74.8ypg) and tied for sixth in receptions (4.6 pg).

L.J. Scott, sophomore, running back. Scott has started six games and leads the team in rushing yards (603) and carries (115).

ILLINOIS PICKS TO CLICK

Carroll Phillips, senior, defensive end. Phillips continues to lead the Big Ten in tackles for loss (1.63 per game), and with the Spartans’ offensive line struggling in pass pro, Phillips could have another big day rushing the passer.

Dawuane Smoot, senior, defensive end. Smoot didn’t initially live up to his preseason accolades, but he has come on strong in conference play, averaging 1.4 TFLs per game to rank third in the Big Ten during league play.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn, sophomore, running back. Vaughn has seen his playing time diminish dramatically after a slow start to the season. He has made some impactful plays, however, and we believe he could do the same this week against the Spartans.

WHEN ILLINOIS HAS THE BALL

Could Illini quarterback Jeff George Jr. break out on Saturday? The Spartans, perennially one of the top defensive teams in the conference, have uncharacteristically yielded 32.8 points per game during Big Ten games. Pass defense has been the Achilles heel, with Michigan State ranked last in the Big Ten in pass defensive efficiency. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 68 percent of their passes against the Spartans.

Still, George is just getting his feet wet as a starting quarterback. Though he was improved last week against Minnesota, looking more comfortable in the pocket, George also turned the ball over at critical points in the game. He could have time to throw on Saturday – MSU has just 4 total sacks in five B1G games. Though McDowell is a dominant player, the rest of the Spartans D-line has not played well. But who will George throw to?

Illinois is woefully thin at receiver. Leading receiver Malik Turner took a viscous his last week on a targeting penalty and is going through concussion protocol. Freshman Dominic Thieman had four catches last week before sustaining a serious ankle injury. Thieman had surgery and is out for the year. The burden now falls on seniors Justin Hardee and DJ Taylor. Perhaps sophomores Sam Mays and Desmond Cain can breakout. Someone must surely step up for Illinois to have a chance.

Earlier in the season, running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn was benched in favor of the duo of Reggie Corbin and Kendrick Foster. He struggled with his vision and was ineffective. But Vaughn remains a very good athlete, albeit not with blazing speed. His contributions have slowly grown over the last couple of games. It’s in the passing game that we think Vaughn could make an impact this week, especially with the receiving corps depleted.

WHEN MICHIGAN STATE HAS THE BALL

Opponents have held Michigan State to just 4.3 yards per rush on the season, and nine total rushing touchdowns. The numbers are improving, however. L.J. Scott rushed for 139 yards on 22 carries last week vs. Michigan, one of the top rushing defenses in the nation. For the second straight game, Michigan State rushed for more than 200 yards. Michigan State recorded 401 yards of total offense, the most by a Michigan opponent this sea

Illinois has a chance if it can force the Spartans to put the ball in the air. That’s a tall task. The Illini defense allows 223 yards per game, ranking them No. 103 nationally. Some of the problems have been up front, with the defensive tackles not always doing a good job sniffing out the football. Gap discipline in the linebacker corps is also an issue. That leaves freshmen safeties Patrick Nelson and Stanley to make stops, and they have been as good as can be expected.

With Brian Lewerke on the shelf with a broken leg, senior Tyler O'Connor is the starting quarterback this week for the Spartans. Connor hasn’t been terrible – he completes over 60 percent of his passes – but he turns the ball over. Connor has thrown 9 interceptions this season, and the Spartans have a -0.5 turnover margin overall. If the Illini pass rushers can get to Connor, they can force him to put it up for grabs.

Illinois started six freshmen on defensive last week against Minnesota: LB Jake Hansen, safety Patrick Nelson, safety Stanley Green, DT Jamal Milan, DT Kenyon Jackson, CB Frank Sumpter. LB Dele Harding also got the most snaps at strong-side linebacker. Lovie Smith said they are playing the guys who give them the best chance to win this year. But there’s no doubt that there’s an eye on the future. Of this group, Milan has the best chance to be a big time, impact player.

KEYS TO THE GAME

Pressure - If this was the NFL, Michigan State might be in big trouble. They don’t rush the passer or protect their own quarterback effectively. The Illini D is strong coming off the edge.

Make them throw - Going hand-in-hand with the first key, Illinois must slow down the Spartans running game and make them put the ball in the air.

Youth movement – Lovie Smith has turned to the youngsters, especially on defense. They should be getting accustomed to the speed of the game by now. Illinois has had 25 first-time starters this season, the most in the nation.

Quarterback play - Neither Tyler Connor or Jeff George Jr. can win this game by himself. But which one has the better game?

Want-to. It’s a cliché that doesn’t always fit. Everyone likes to win, and no one likes to lose. But this is a battle of two struggling teams. Which one wants it more?

PREDICTION

The Spartans played one of their better games against arch rival Michigan last week and appear to have their running game going. That alone bodes poorly for an Illinois defense that has struggled against the run. Offensively, the injury to Malik Turner robs Illinois as one of its few playmakers. Michigan State is more physical, despite their troubles. The Spartans dominate on the ground, and come away with their first Big Ten victory of the season.

Michigan State 34 Illinois 17