The Fighting Illini return to Memorial Stadium for the final time this season to face the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 11 am CT with the game televised on BTN.
Iowa is coming off of one of the biggest upsets of the year in college football. Three Hawkeyes earned B1G Player of the Week recognition following Iowa’s 14-13 win over No. 2 Michigan.
Senior DT Jaleel Johnson earned defensive honors, freshman K Keith Duncan earned special teams honors, and DB Manny Rugamba shared freshman of the week honors
Saturday is the 72nd meeting between Iowa and Illinois. Iowa trails the all-time series, 31-38-2, but the Hawkeyes have won 10 of the last 13 meetings and seven of the last eight.
OrangeandBlueNews.com caught up with Tom Kakert from HawkeyeReport.com to get the lowdown on Iowa ahead of Saturday's contest. Follow Tom Kakert on Twitter @HawkeyeReport.
Iowa pulled off one of the upsets of the year last week with a 14-13 win over Michigan. What were some of the keys to that victory? Will those things carry over to the game this week at Illinois?
Tom Kakert: Trust me, it was a huge upset, especially to those of us who watched Iowa play the week before and get blown out and dominated by Penn State. That was the same Penn State team that lost to Michigan a month earlier by 39 points. When I say no one saw the result we saw on Saturday night coming, I mean no one saw it coming except for the Iowa players and coaches.
Basically, a completely different Iowa defense showed up to face Michigan. The previous week, Penn State was one yard away from 600 yards of total offense against the Hawkeyes. Michigan came into the game averaging 50 points a game and 470 yards of total offense. Iowa’s defense held them to 13 points and 201 yards of total offense. It all starts up front for Iowa and Jaleel Johnson, the senior defensive tackle from Chicago, was tremendous. He had nine tackles, including a safety, and earned Big Ten player of the week honors on defense. Faith Ekakitie, another native of the Chicago area, played his best game as a Hawkeye. Iowa had some stellar defensive back play from Desmond King and true freshman Manny Rugamba, who had an interception.
I think the big question this weekend is will it carry over? I mean, you look at the previous week against Penn State and that didn’t carry over, which is good for Iowa, but it speaks to the inconsistent nature of this year’s Iowa team. They have now won three Big Ten games by scoring just 14 points this year. That’s a high wire act in college football. I think they gained a lot of confidence and feel like a corner might have been turned, but the proof will be in their play on Saturday.
The Hawkeyes were coming off of back to back losses to Wisconsin and Penn State. Which is the real Iowa defense - the one that yielded 359 yards on the ground to Penn State, or the one that showed up last week against the Wolverines? Who are some defenders that Illinois fans should be aware of?
TK: With a fairly limited offense right now, how the defense plays determines if Iowa will win or even be competitive. If you look back on the 18 years under Kirk Ferentz, the key stat to watch on defense has always been stopping the run. When Iowa holds opposing teams around 125 yards or lower during the course of a season, it’s usually a good year. When they are up around 160 or more, then they are asking for trouble. Iowa’s still not great stopping the run on the season with opponents averaging 168 yards per game. Honestly, the true Iowa team based on their body of work in 2016 is probably somewhere between the bad at Penn State and the good against Michigan.
Desmond King gets most of the attention given he is a returning All American. Opposing teams have thrown away from him most of the year. Manny Rugamba stepped in last week and started at the other corner. The true freshman replaced senior Greg Mabin, who was injured in practice last week and will be lost for the rest of the regular season. Josey Jewell is the heart of the defense. The Iowa middle linebacker is their leading tackler and one of the best linebackers in the Big Ten. If Jaleel Johnson is on his game, it does wonders for the overall Iowa defense. Their top pass rushers are Anthony Nelson and Parker Hesse, but creating pressure off the edge hasn’t been a strength of the Iowa defense.
Both Illinois and Iowa have had difficulty generating a lot of offense. Who puts it together on Saturday offensively, the Hawkeyes or the Illini? What have been some of the issues for Iowa on offense? Who are some of the play-makers to watch?
TK: I think that’s really what decides the game on Saturday. Which offense can score enough points to win? As mentioned earlier, Iowa has beaten Michigan, Rutgers, and Minnesota by scoring only 14 points in those games. It’s pretty amazing and says everything you need to know about the struggles of the Hawkeye offense this year.
Part of it is certainly due to injuries. Iowa lost their leading wide receiver, Matt VandeBerg, to a broken foot, after the fourth game. He was Iowa’s leading receiver last year with 65 catches, and was leading the team this year. Iowa was already thin and inexperienced at the position and other than Riley McCarron, no one has really stepped up on a consistent basis. To add to Iowa’s pass game woes, their top tight end, George Kittle will be out for the second straight week with a sprained foot. He was their second leading receiver this year and led the team in touchdown receptions last season. All of this has led to C.J. Beathard struggling at quarterback. His numbers are down and it’s a result of the limitations at receiver and a revolving door of injuries on the offensive line. Starting right tackle Cole Croston is expected to miss his second straight game and his replacement, Ike Boettger is questionable on Saturday after rolling his ankle late in the Michigan game.
The real playmaker for the Hawkeyes right now is Akrum Wadley. The junior running back accounted for 167 yards against Michigan between runs and pass receptions. Wadley is elusive and can make defenders miss. Iowa’s other back is LeShun Daniels, who is more of a power back. The two backs generally split time and carries.
Do you see any chance for a letdown coming off of the big upset? Or could Iowa possibly be looking ahead to the showdown with Nebraska next week? How much confidence do you have that Iowa has turned the corner, and why? And how do you size up the race to win the Big Ten West? Is Iowa still in it if they win out?
TK: It’s going to take a flat out miracle for Iowa to go back to Indy again this year. Basically, Wisconsin has to lose to Purdue and Minnesota before it even becomes a consideration and we can probably end the conversation when you mention the Boilers. But, if that happens and Iowa wins out, then all they need is a loss by Northwestern.
There’s certainly a chance for a letdown. Last year’s Iowa team was incredibly consistent all season long. This year’s version has been wildly inconsistent for much of the season. The last two weeks are a great example of that, getting blown out by Penn State and then beating previously undefeated Michigan.
I don’t have much to base it on, but Saturday felt like a corner turning type event for Iowa. Then again, I’ve kind of felt that way a few other times and they don’t turn the corner. If anything, they have played to the level of their competition. Having said that, other than the Penn State game, Iowa has been great on the road the past two years. They have won 9 of their last 10 on the road and while it hasn’t always been pretty, the bottom line is they found a way to win. One thing I don’t think is an issue is looking ahead. The Iowa coaches preach the idea of one game at a time and they tend to stay in the moment.
How do you see the game playing out on Saturday in Champaign? Keys the game? Final score?
TK: Keep an eye on the weather on Saturday because it might be a factor. If it’s as windy as they are predicting, then that limits the deep passing game and will impact the kicking game in a big way. From there it may come down to who can establish the run game. I think that’s probably an advantage for the Hawkeyes. They ran the ball well last week against Michigan and seemed to be figuring it out on that front. Iowa fans are always worried when the Hawkeyes are double figure favorites, especially on the road. Kirk Ferentz record in those spots isn’t great and includes a lot of straight up losses. But, I think Iowa’s defense will be up to the task and that’s the difference in the game.
Iowa 24 Illinois 17