With Illinois once again struggling towards a losing record in the Big Ten and on a course to miss the NCAA Tournament for the fourth consecutive year, the topic of John Groce’s job status is front and center.

In the 3-2-1, OrangeandBlueNews.com looks at three things we know about this situation and two questions that we have, and we make a prediction on which way it’s headed.

1. The numbers don’t lie. John Groce has compiled a 90-69 record at Illinois over 4 ½ years, 32-48 in Big Ten Conference play. His .566 winning percentage is the worst for an Illinois basketball coach since Gene Bartow’s one-year 8-18 record in 1974-75. Before that, Harv Smith had an 89-77 record (.536) in seven years from 1967-1974. Groce’s teams have not finished higher than 7th in the Big Ten. Groce has gone 11-27 in Big Ten road games and 9-30 against top 25 opponents.

2. Illinois is often noncompetitive against good teams, especially on the road. The Illini lost a neutral site game to West Virginia 89-57 and was drubbed at Maryland 84-59 and at Purdue 91-68. The effort is better at home in the State Farm Center, but the execution is always inconsistent. Stoppages of the ball are a staple of Groce’s offense. Lack of awareness on defense routinely results in easy baskets for the opposition. Fans are often confused by the rotation of players, with combinations on the floor that don’t make a lot of sense. Dysfunction may be strong word to use, but that’s what it is at times.

3. Athletic Director Josh Whitman likes Groce. He likes Groce’s demeanor and his approach to coaching. They have a shared vision and a sincere desire to get the program back where it should be. But that mutual respect should not cloud Whitman’s judgement. Fans are tuning out. After investing millions to renovate the State Farm Center, far too many seats remain empty, including the high-dollar premium seating. With a 13-10, 3-7 Big Ten record so far this season, the Illini will have to win at least six, and posisbly seven, of their final eight games to even appear on the NCAA bubble, or possibly a miraculous run in the Big Ten Tournament. Whitman’s hand may be forced.

1. Will the 2017 recruiting class impact the decision? Illinois signed a strong group of prospects, headlined by 5-star big man Jeremiah Tilmon. Combo guard Trent Frazier is blowing up this winter. Throw in two solid in-state guards in Javon Pickett and legacy Da’Monte Williams, and its class that you hope a new coach can hold together. Will Josh Whitman be inclined to hold on to Groce to see what he can do with this group? Illinois could also add to the class. They are heavily pursuing rising guard Mark Smith from Edwardsville. The question is, is it worth it to retain a struggling coach with the hopes that the incoming talent can get things turned around?

2. Will Whitman be able raise enough money? Groce has a $1.6 mil buyout which would be paid over two years less new earnings. Groce also is to receive a $500,000 bonus on April 30th if he is still employed at Illinois. Illinois would likely have to pay in the over $3m per season to land one of their top targets. Tony Bennett is underpaid at Virginia, but still rakes in $2.1m in total compensation. Illinois could grab Cal coach Cuonzo Martin, who is currently making $1.5m. Former Pelican’s coach Monty Williams, who currently works in the front office of the Spurs, would likely command a similar amount of change. Rumor has it that billionaire Illinois alum Shad Khan, owner of the Jacksonville Jaguars, may be willing to make an investment, but that’s just conjecture at this point. The Illini signed Lovie Smith to a six-year deal worth $21m. Does that deal hamstring the University at all when they look to sign a new hoops coach?

Barring a miraculous turnaround, John Groce will be let go at the end of the basketball season. That’s not a revelation. Missing the NCAA Tournament four consecutive years will leave Whitman with no other choice. Groce is a good enough guy and you root for him. But the record speaks for itself. This is a bottom line business, and Illinois basketball has taken a nose dive over the last several years. Fans reached the apathy stage some time ago. The program needs a major shot in the arm in the way Lovie Smith energized Illini football. Can Whitman find the homerun replacement ashe did with Smith? That's for a later 3-2-1.