Illini AD Josh Whitman surprised everyone when he hired former NFL head coach Lovie Smith to take over the fledgling Illinois program, giving the fanbase a colossal emotional boost. Still, a healthy dose of reality may greet fans when the Illini take the field in September. Like the fans’ psyche, the talent pool needs a lift.

BTN senior writer Tom Dienhart isn’t bullish on the Illini’s chances to reach bowl eligibility in Lovie Smith’s first season in Champaign.

“I think they will be hard pressed to get to .500,” Dienhart said. “I think 5-7 or 4-8.”

Most other pre-season prognosticators agree with Dienhart, who joined BTN after serving as the senior national college football writer at Rivals.com/Yahoo! Sports. Athlon Sports and Lindy’s – two of the most widely read pre-season magazines - both project Illinois for 6th place in the Big Ten West. Expect more of the same from the B1G beat writers when they descend on Chicago next week for Big Ten Media Days.

The consensus among the experts is that the returning talent – with a shortage of play-makers and significant losses to graduation - suggests another losing season for the Illini, and yet another year without a post-season appearance.

Illinois does have bona fide stars in pass-rushing defensive end Dawuane Smoot and sophomore running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn, and the addition of Cal transfer Hardy Nickerson to the linebacker corps was huge. But key injuries and recruiting misses leave Illinois vulnerable, inexperienced, and lacking depth at wide receiver, running back, and defensive back.

“I do think the staff is going to be able to work with what they’ve got there,” Dienhart said. “But again, there are some talent limitations. They may not be able to do everything they want to do schematically on both sides of the ball the first couple of years until they get their players in the system.”

Recruiting talent to fit the new schemes is essential if Smith is to enjoy long-term success at Illinois. Offensive coordinator Garrick McGee wants to run the football, preferring a dual-threat quarterback. Overall, the Illini need more athletes on the roster who can compete with the upper echelon teams in their division. An average of the last four recruiting classes combined places the Illini No. 59 in the nation over that span, according to Rivals.com. The previous regimes didn’t leave the cupboard bare, but it’s not fully stocked with Big Ten talent.

That’s not to say there isn’t anticipation for the upcoming season.

The Lovie factor led to an uptick in season ticket sales and increased interest from the national media. The Illinois student body, who haven’t shown up in big numbers for years, seem poised to fill up the Block I section at Memorial Stadium. An early season upset over a ranked opponent like North Carolina would increase the buzz and prolong Smith’s honeymoon.

Fans are more confident than the gurus. 74 percent of fans who responded to our unscientific Twitter poll last weekend picked the Illini to win 6-8 games and go bowling at the end of the year. Dienhart says that fans should be patient and not judge Smith’s first year as head coach based solely on wins and losses.

“I think a lot will be judged, and should be judged, on how they perform each week,” Dienhart said. “Are they not getting blown out by good teams? Are they not losing to teams they shouldn’t lose to? Did they get better from September to November?

“That’s going to be a good way to judge some of the progress that Lovie will have made that first year.”

By that measuring stick, Smith should blow his predecessors away. In three seasons at Illinois, former coach Tim Beckman lost 25 games by an average of 21 points. Beckman won some, but his teams were never consistently competitive. Despite Beckman cutting his teeth as a defensive coach, the Illini yielded 50 points or more seven times during his stint in Champaign. The low-point was a 38-27 home loss to lowly Purdue on Oct. 4, 2014 – an embarrassment that many thought would be the death knell for Beckman’s tenure at the school.

The Illini did show a bit more fight in Bill Cubit’s lone season a year ago, but a devastating second half of the 2015 campaign saw Illinois lose 6 of 7 games down the stretch, ending all hope for a bowl game and a soft landing for Cubit. It also prolonged the agony from the player abuse scandal that rocked the program last summer and led to Beckman’s release just a week before the opening game. All was not well at the end of the season. Members of the staff appeared to be working at crossed-purposes, and many players didn't like the upheaval. Enter the newly-hired Whitman, and his bold move to make a coaching change in March.

Illini fans now hope that the competence of a coaching staff long on NFL experience can usurp the "talent limitations" that Dienhart aptly points out. Activity on the social networks and at the ticket office suggests there’s more than just hope. Fans seem genuinely excited.

Dienhart admits that it’s difficult to gauge what the impact of a new staff and a new approach will ultimately be on the won-loss record.

“Lovie may not have coached college football for over 20 years, but he put together a good staff,” Dienhart said. “These guys understand they can’t jam a round peg into a square hole.”

After watching Illinois go through spring drills earlier this year, Dienhart also sees enough talent to be fairly competitive and possibly pull off a surprise or two. He especially likes who the Illini will line up in the trenches on both sides of the football. And although quarterback Wes Lunt “hasn’t set the world on fire”, he has two seasons as a Big Ten starter under his belt.

“The offensive line has been a weakness for a number of years, but they could be solid,” Dienhart said. “I think the D-line is probably underrated. If you’re good up front on both sides of the ball and if you have a veteran quarterback you have a chance to have a pretty solid team.”

2016 record: OrangeandBlueNews.com projects Illinois to finish the 2016 regular season with 6-6 record and accept an invitation to play in the Foster Farms Bowl on Dec. 28 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. It will be a coming home party for Hardy Nickerson. Holding serve at home is the key to the season, especially with just four of nine conference games in Champaign. Coaching is the X-factor. Lovie and his staff do more with less, and the momentum builds.

Offensive MVP: Wes Lunt, senior, quarterback. Play-calling might impact this pick. RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn could be the go-to player. Still, we have to go with the veteran QB with the big arm. We love what Garrick McGee brings to the table as the quarterbacks coach. He will help Lunt with the intangibles. Cut the drops in half this year, and Lunt could lead the Big Ten in passing. He needs to put it in the end zone more often, and make better decisions on the move. It's all about efficiency.

Defensive MVP: Dawuane Smoot, senior, defensive end. The Illini want to be more aggressive chasing opposing quarterbacks, and Smoot is one of the best pass rushers in the Big Ten. He was in great physical condition this spring and champing at the bit. Smoot has the makings of a first round NFL Draft pick. Yes, he’s that good. Illinois fans have seen what a big year from an edge rusher can do for a defense and for a season. Remember Whitney Mercilus?

Newcomer of the year: Hardy Nickerson, senior, middle linebacker. Nickerson will get a ton of tackles. That’s a given. And his leadership adds another dimension to the Illini defense. Though he’s not a spectacular athlete, Nickerson’s presence in the middle of the defense will mean fewer of the read mistakes that has plagued Illinois in recent years. That alone improves the run defense. Nickerson rarely makes "eye" mistakes, and he's as sure of a tackler as Illinois has lined up in recent years.

Freshman of the year: Tre Nation, running back. Nation may not be the most talented freshman on the roster, but opportunity knocks. He should get his chance to earn carries, especially in short yardage situations and in the red zone. Others to watch include tight end Zarrian Holcombe, linebacker Dele’ Harding, and wide receiver Dominic Thieman.

Breakout performer (offense): Sam Mays, sophomore, wide receiver. A long strider with a big wing span, Mays is very similar to graduated senior Geronimo Allison. Fans haven’t seen his true potential yet. Also, we still believe R-frosh Gabe Megginson will earn a starting spot at guard. His ceiling is very high, he just needs to be more consistent.

Breakout performer (defense): Jamal Milan, R-freshman, defensive tackle. Defensive line coach Mike Phair believes Milan is a future pro. He is surprisingly nimble for a big defensive lineman. Milan gets off the ball in a hurry and he plays with anger. Outside linebacker Julian Jones also has a chance to shine. You can’t teach speed, and Jones has jets.

Upset special: The Illini will upset the Iowa Hawkeyes on Nov. 19 at Memorial Stadium. Iowa is physical, but not explosive. Illinois kept it relatively close in 2015. This time they get the win in a nail-biter. Illinois can’t let Desmond King take over the game, especially as a return man. King might be the best football player in the Big Ten, and one of the best in the nation at his position.