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Published Sep 7, 2016
Preview: Illinois hosts Tar Heels under the lights
Doug Bucshon  •  OrangeandBlueNews
Publisher

MORE: Illinois game notes | Behind enemy lines

The Fighting Illini (1-0) welcome the North Carolina Tar Heels (0-1) to Memorial Stadium Saturday night for a primetime showdown under the lights. Kickoff is set for 6:42 p.m. CT with the game televised on BTN.

Saturday will be the fourth meeting between the Fighting Illini and North Carolina, and the second in Champaign. The Tar Heels have won all three previous meetings, including 48-14 last season in Chapel Hill.

The Illini opened the 2016 season with a 52-3 win over Murray State in the first game of Lovie’s Smith tenure in Champaign. The Illinois defensive held the Racers to -10 yards rushing in the contest.

North dropped its season opener 33-24 against Georgia in a neutral site game in Atlanta. TJ Logan rushed for 80 yards and a touchdown.

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ILLINI PICKS TO CLICK

Dawuane Smoot, defensive end. The pre-season All-Big Ten pick looks for redemption of sorts after being flagged for three penalties, recording one tackle, and zero tackles for loss against Murray State. Smoot matches up athletically with anyone the Tar Heels will throw at him. He will be amped up for this one.

Hardy Nickerson, linebacker. You have to tackle in space against North Carolina, who will spread defenses out horizontally. Nickerson should be up to the task. He ranges from sideline to sideline and is as fundamentally sound as it gets tackling ball carriers. He’s also very effective buzzing the short passing routes.

Wes Lunt, quarterback. From what we saw last week, it’s doubtful that Illinois will be able to pound the ball on the ground against North Carolina. Lunt will have to make plays, particularly on third down. He’s very accurate when he has time to set up and survey the field. Lunt also has to make the right decisions when he’s under duress, as he will be at times on Saturday.

NORTH CAROLINA PLAYERS TO WATCH

Elijah Hood, running back. Hood had 1,463 rushing yards in 2015, which ranks second onlyto Don McCauley in UNC single-season history. Hood ran for 129 yards and a touchdown in the Tar Heels win over Illinois last year in Chapel Hill.

Nazair Jones, defensive end. Jones was a third-team All-ACC selection a year ago and is one of the top defensive players on the team. A strong force on the inside of the line, Jones had 40 tackles, two fumble recoveries, one interception and one forced fumble in 2015.

Ryan Switzer, KR/PR. Switzer has seven career punt return touch downs, which is an ACC career record and is just one shy of tying the NCAA all-time record. Switzer had a 71-yard return early in the second quarter in last year’s game vs. Illinois to set up a short field goal, then broke free for an 85-yard touchdown in the fourth.

Mitch Trubisky, quarterback. Trubisky completed 24 of 40 pass attempts for 156 yards in the season-opening game last week against Georgia. He has attempted 105 consecutive passes since his last interception, which came in 2014 vs. NC State.

WHEN ILLINOIS HAS THE BALL

Offensive coordinator Garrick McGee was far from satisfied with the Illini’s execution in the opener last week. He’s a stickler for detail. The things the Illini staff want to clean up in practices this week include linemen getting better leverage, route running from the receiving corps, and the timing in the passing game. To pull off a big win on Saturday night, the Illini offense has to be a well-oiled machine.

Last week, Georgia averaged 5.6 yards per rush against UNC en route to 289 yards on the ground, the bulk coming from Nick Chubb. Illinois doesn’t have Chubb, but they need Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Kendrick Foster to make some plays. Getting center Joe Spencer back from injury will help, particularly with the timing and cohesiveness up front. Chubb had his most success on toss plays wide and when he bounced runs to the outside. We haven’t yet seen Vaughn show the ability to get to the edge.

Illinois needs to be balanced, efficient, and mistake free. It helps having a veteran like Wes Lunt playing quarterback. Lunt had a 187.7 passing efficiency rating and completed 66.7 percent of his throws against Murray State. He needs to repeat those numbers against Power 5 competition, beginning this week. He’ll have to do it under much more pressure than he faced in Week 1, and against UNC cornerbacks Des Lawrence and MJ Steward, who are both All-ACC candidates.

Illinois had to throw the ball in the red zone against Murray State, and it worked out. That makes you pause a little bit, however. Though some bugs were still being worked out up front, Illinois should have been able to power the ball into the end zone vs. an FCS opponent. It’s a different scenario this week against the Tar Heels, who have an athletic front four led by 6-foot-5, 295-pound Nazair Jones. The Illini have to finish their drives and not settle for field goals.

WHEN NORTH CAROLINA HAS THE BALL

The ballyhooed Illini defensive line has their first big challenge of the year. Four starters return on the UNC offensive line with 116 combined starts. All-American Landon Turner graduated, but guard Caleb Peterson and tackle John Heck are both All-ACC types. Smoot and Carroll Phillips have the burst to excel against any opponent. They can’t do it alone, however. Chunky Clements and Rob Bain have to provide the bull rush up the middle and collapse the pocket.

Illinois faces another spread offense this week. The Tar Heels will try to speed things up, line up 4 wide, and take shots downfield to a corps of speedy wideouts. North Carolina runs the typical series of plays out of the shotgun with a one-back set; inside zone, gap running plays including powers and counters, and play action passes. Bite on play action, and they will burn you deep. It's a test for Illinois safeties Julian Hylton and Taylor Barton.

Larry Fedora took some heat for abandoning the running game against Georgia, airing it out 40 times in the loss. That’s a head-shaker with the duo of Elijah Hood and TJ Logan at running back. In 2015, Carolina finished 18th nationally with 224.4 rushing yards per game. The last thing Illinois wants to do is let the Tar Heels roll over them on the ground. Illini middle linebacker Hardy Nickerson will likely get a workout.

Trubisky is a gunslinger and he can move out of the pocket. He scored on a naked bootleg against Georgia. Rivals.com ranked Trubisky the No. 21 dual-threat quarterback in the nation coming out of Mentor (Ohio) in the class of 2013. Tar Heel fans have been anxious to see him get his shot. If Illinois gives him too much time to scope out targets, Trubisky can pick them apart. But we think the Illini can rattle him and get him to throw into coverage.

KEYS TO THE GAME

1. Track meet. Illini got burned by big plays in last year’s game when they were outmatched athletically. The Tar Heels are particular dangerous in the return game. TJ Logan had a 95-yard kick return for a TD vs. Georgia.

2. Old school. Run the ball + stop the run is still a winning formula. Chubb sliced up the Carolina defense last week for 222 yards. What did Illinois learn from that? Nickerson et al have the duo of Hood and Logan to deal with.

3. Chain gang. Third down conversions loom large for an Illini offense short on explosive athletes. Wes Lunt will need to make some plays and move the sticks. The Illini were 6-12 on third down last week.

4. Lovie ball. Mark it down every week…takeaways are key. And a score on defense would obviously change the game in the Illini’s favor.

5. Fedora vs. Lovie. Coaching matters. Carolina was penalized 13 times for 101 yards last week. Why didn’t UNC run the ball more against Georgia? Does Illini OC Garrick McGee have some tricks up his sleeve?

PREDICTION

North Carolina 28 Illinois 17. There should be a nice crowd at Memorial Stadium, but the home field advantage probably isn’t enough to carry the Illini to an upset. Illinois would need to win the turnover battle and score a TD on defense or special teams, and that’s possible. But all things considered, this is a Carolina win on paper. We will go with the Tar Heels on the field as well. The Illini fall to 1-1 with Western Michigan up next.

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