CHAMPAIGN – So as everyone spends the summer mingling with folks on the pool deck, county fair beer tent or the golf course, the same question generally comes regarding Illini football.
With two seasons under his belt and very few signs of improvement in the first two seasons as Illini football coach, Lovie Smith found it difficult to compete in the Big Ten Conference, let alone win a few games. The Lovie Lovefest has faded a bit since that first big home night game against North Carolina, when the stands were nearly full and the food ran out on the east side of Memorial Stadium.
On that evening, Illini fans were proud to wear the orange and give Lovie some breathing room while rebuilding a program that slide deep into mediocrity. Then came two Big Ten wins in the first two seasons, after an 0-9 season a year ago. Despite a youth movement last fall, Illinois shook up the coaching staff, so there were more problems apparently than a roster turnover.
Entering the third season, this is Lovie Smith 2.0 (reconfigured coaching staff, more recruiting help), and that question about Lovie keeps coming this way. Sometimes, it’s in a hushed tone, sometimes with built-in excuse and sometimes with little enthusiasm or patience remaining.
It goes usually like this: So, is Lovie the guy to get it done at Illinois?
The answer sometimes comes with a wrinkle of the nose and a nod to the men before him who couldn’t get it done over the long haul, then boiling it down to this season. If Lovie is the guy, then there should be marked improvement this fall. If Lovie is the guy to rebuild a program that historically spikes once or twice a decade, it needs to be soon, because a coach sells hope only so long.
So, as the Lovie Era moved into a third season with a new offensive coordinator Rod Smith, a fifth-year transfer at quarterback and a defense that should be better by now, the clock is ticking on Lovie, no matter how hard his boss tries to keep the pressure off.
By adding new faces to the coaching staff, Illinois hired two youngsters with the enthusiasm to recruit, perhaps offering a spark to underwhelming Illini recruiting efforts early in Lovie's time here. That’s a positive sign. But the Illini need to start getting it done on the field.
A wise old man (OK, it was Herb Gould from the Chicago Sun-Times) once told me, “You need to win your winners.’’ In translation, win the game you should win, and provide an opportunity to steal one in the games where you’re a competitive underdog.
In that scenario, the Illini season boils down to a handful of games: Kent State, Western Illinois, South Florida, Rutgers, Purdue, Maryland and Minnesota. Illinois looked more like a Power 5 team in the preseason, but the Big Ten West is also improving up and down the standings, even if those upgrades still aren’t fully matured.
If the Illini are to move forward, the worst offense from a Power 5 conference a year ago should go from averaging 15.4 points a game to something like 22/25 points per game. Rod Smith isn’t a savior, but his experience in a spread offense offers hope. The scheme is a neutralizer, allowing teams to create mismatches instead of going 11-on-11 against established power programs.
Quarterback AJ Bush looked good in preseason camp, but it’s time now to do it against teams not wearing orange. The biggest transition on that side of the ball comes a thin offensive line changing schemes from a traditional power running game to blocking a spread. It takes more movement, more athleticism, and the hint in the depth of the line talent came when the Illini moved redshirt freshman Kendrick Green from defensive line to a starter at guard.
A year ago, the Illini were so young and inexperienced, they were unable to move past a base defense. It was a 4-3 scheme with little to no pre-snap movement to disguise coverages. Coaches and quarterbacks picked it apart. The Illini showed little change in open practices this fall, so the defense might still be a bit challenged this fall but not as bad as the unit that allowed 31.5 points per game a year ago. Nonetheless, there’s some excitement with a talented defensive line and some returning experience at linebacker.
For the Illini to become competitive, Illinois needs a defense that’s middle of the pack in the Big Ten.
So, let’s look at the schedule, which quite honestly shouldn’t be overwhelming. The Illini avoid Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State from the Big Ten East.
Kent State (sitting at No. 9 in the Bottom 10 by ESPN) and Western Illinois should offer little resistance, if there’s true improvement from the Illini. From there, a step forward from the Illini would be a 3-2 record among games against South Florida, Rutgers, Purdue, Maryland and Minnesota. South Florida lost a do-it-all quarterback, Purdue must rebuild a defense, Rutgers is Rutgers, Maryland has its own scandal and Minnesota is going with a walk-on quarterback.
By using that formula, it would add up to five wins. A bowl game would require something special in a big upset. At this point, that’s probably asking too much.
Folks looking for improvement should by happy with five wins. Maybe four would do it, if the Illini are competitive more often this fall.
That should satisfy folks asking the questions about Lovie.
