Orange and Blue News publisher Doug Bucshon answers questions from subscribers in the latest Illini hoops mailbag.
Does continuity matter in college basketball?
It still matters even in the age of the portal, and the results on the court this coming season will bear that out, in my opinion. It takes tremendous coaching acumen to build a new roster from scratch and mold it into a cohesive unit in a couple of months.
The top teams will be those that bring back a core group while also filling needs with talented newcomers, either from the portal, high school ranks, or both. (Terrance Shannon Jr, Coleman Hawkins, Ty Rodgers + Marcus Domask, Quincy Guerrier).
Two teams projected to top the preseason rankings fit that mold. Kansas added AJ Storr to a group of returning players that includes Hunter Dickinson, KJ Adams, and Dajuan Harris. Alabama returns All-American Mar Sears and two other starters while adding big man Cliff Omoruyi and guard Aden Holloway.
Does that bode well for Illinois this coming season? Probably not. I’d expect the Illini to go through growing pains and take time to jell. However, one of the great things about the group that Underwood is bringing in is that almost all of them have multiple years of eligibility. That was by design.
Illinois should still be a NCAA Tournament team in 2024-25, then will have a chance to be special the next season if they can hold the bulk of the roster together.
Most surprising departure from the Illini basketball team? Most surprising addition?
Luke Goode always seemed to be bought in at Illinois and he appeared to have little interest in returning to his home state after getting snubbed by Indiana and Purdue coming out of high school in Ft. Wayne. So, it was surprising when he decided to go through senior night activities. He was gone at that point, though, so his jumping into the portal wasn’t a total shock.
I was a bit surprised that Illinois had the resources to sign Kasparas Jakucionis. He had an opportunity to sign a lucrative deal with Barcelona and continue to develop in that program before entering the NBA Draft. In the end, he believed a move to the U.S. to play college ball was his most sure path to the pros and Illinois closed the deal. They flexed some NIL muscles in signing him.
At what point did Underwood and company decide to make a big push to add Europeans to the roster?
It was an option all along this offseason, and something Brad Underwood and Geoff Alexander invested a lot of time and energy into cultivating. It became Plan A when a few of the players in the portal either didn’t express interest, were asking for too much money, or didn’t have the skill sets that Underwood was looking for.
The pre-established relationships with the EuroLeague paid off, aided by Orlando Antigua’s connection to Tomislav Ivisic after coaching his brother at Kentucky. They knew they were getting a lot of interest from the two Euro kids, and Underwood’s trip across the pond to see them in person was a turning point.
Can you break down the Ty Rodgers / Tre White battle for the starting small forward spot?
Pretty simple. If Underwood thinks he can get enough offense from the other four starters, then Rodgers will be in the lineup. If not, it will be White.
As a third-year player in the system, Rodgers will have the edge at the outset. He obviously brings knowledge of the schemes plus tenacity on the glass. He had (by far) the highest offensive rebounding rate (11.3) on the team last season.
The issue with Rodgers is that he’s not a threat to score away from the rim. He even missed his share of layups this past season. To take a leap forward, he will need to have more confidence in his mid-range jumper.
While White didn’t burn the nets at Louisville, he’s a versatile and aggressive scorer with shooting potential. He shot around 30 percent from three and had a decent offensive rating (103.4). I tend to believe his subpar defensive numbers were mostly due to coaching. Louisville was a mess.
Will Morez Johnson be an instant impact player or will he need a year to adjust to the college game?
Johnson will be an instant impact player on the glass. He may be the top rebounder in the 2024 class because of his tenacity, timing, and ability to change directions and chase down the basketball. He's displaying that at the AmeriCup for USA Basketball.
I do think his offensive is a work in progress. As a 6-foot-8 power forward, he’ll need to continue to expand his shooting range and develop go-to moves around the rim. He should be great finishing in transition, though.
How will the offense change going from no true point guard to possibly two of them starting together?
We will see less “booty-ball” and more of a conventional spread-motion attack, with more ball screens, driving, and cutting There should be more continuity in the offense with two primary ball handlers on the court.
Rather than clearing the lane and backing guys down, the ball will go to Ivisic or Johnson in the pinch post, and they will play a two-man game with Jakucionis or Boswell.
If teams deny the wing entry pass, Illinois will have two guys who can put it on the floor and initiate the offense with the dribble entry. When they draw defenders, Ben Humrichous will spot up for 3’s.
It’s going to be difficult to be as efficient as last year’s team, but the offense could have more flow and be prettier to watch.
Which newcomer will be the best on the defensive end?
Kylan Boswell. He’s known as a strong on-the-ball defender, using his physicality to pressure the ball and disrupt offenses. He plays smart team defense and gets hands in the passing lanes.
Boswell led Arizona last year with 50 steals; the most steals in a season by a Wildcat since Kadeem Allen had 53 in 2016-17. He ranked 10th in the Pac-12 in steals per game (1.39) and 8th in the conference in adjusted defensive rating (93.8).
Where will Illinois get the money to pay its football and basketball players per the NCAA agreement?
That is (literally) the million-dollar question.
Some background. The settlement on three anti-trust cases will allow schools to directly pay athletes (as high as $22 million annually). Over the first three years of the deal, the money figure will automatically increase by 4% each year. The schools are also liable for nearly 2.8 billion in back damages.
Three major questions remain: Where will the money come from? To whom will it be divvied out and how does Title IX impact that? And where do the NIL collectives fit in?
The money for revenue sharing has to come from somewhere. Most athletic departments are already strapped for cash. Illinois is in the red by more than $300m. There are going to be unintended consequences to the deal.
Expect facilities upgrades to be put on hold and for the DIA to trim fat internally. Hopefully, non-revenue sports won’t be on the chopping block, but that is certainly a possibility. How long until the big-hitter boosters, who will now be asked to do even more, starting getting donor fatigue? The message is 'if you want a top program fans / donors will have to pay plenty for it;'.
There is still a mechanism for paying athletes through the collectives outside of the direct revenue sharing cap, though the rules are stricter. The settlement terms prohibit athletes from entering into any arrangement with a booster unless the deal can be expressly proven as a genuine agreement for use of the player’s likeness.
Who gets the money? In a revenue-sharing model, how does Title IX apply? There are no constraints on the distribution of revenue so it's up to the school. Who will decide at Illinois? The athletic department or higher powers in the UI administration?
The upheaval in college sports has been about athletes who generate revenue for the schools and the NCAA getting their fare share of the profits. If the money is evenly distributed to all sports based on an interpretation of Title IX, it will all be headed back to court.
Who on the roster would you expect to play in the NBA someday?
Several guys have a chance, but the two with the most NBA potential may be Carey Booth and Kasparas Jakucionis. They both have excellent positional size and a versatile skill set. At 6-foot-10, Booth projects as a floor spacer and above the rim finisher. Jakucionis is a high-level playmaker and has advanced ball skills for an 18-year-old.
What will be the starting lineup for the first basketball game?
G Kylan Boswell
F Ty Rodgers
F Ben Humrichous
C Tomislov Isivic
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