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Published Oct 6, 2016
Preview: Illinois returns home to take on Boilermakers
Doug Bucshon  •  OrangeandBlueNews
Publisher

MORE: Illinois game notes | Behind enemy lines

Illinois (1-3) returns home to Memorial Stadium on Saturday to host Purdue (2-2) in a clash of two Big Ten teams that are trying to turn things around. Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. CT and the game is televised on BTN.

The Illini are looking to rebound after a 31-16 loss at Nebraska last week in Lincoln. Purdue lost big at Maryland, 50-7. Both teams are looking for their first conference win of the season.

Illinois and Purdue will play for the coveted Cannon rivalry trophy. Purdue leads the traditional trophy series by a 33-28-2 mark. The Illini currently hold the Cannon after a 48-14 win in West Lafayette last season.

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PURDUE PLAYERS TO WATCH

Markell Jones, sophomore, running back. Jones led the team in rushing last season with 168 carries for 875 yards and 10 touchdowns. The 875 yards are the most ever by a Purdue freshman. Jones is on the Doak Walker Watch List.

Ja’Whaun Bentley, junior, linebacker. Bentley has 143 tackles, 13.0 for loss, three fumble recoveries and an interception in his 21-game career. He missed the final seven games in 2015 with a torn ACL.

David Blough, sophomore, quarterback. Blough, a third-year sophomore, has appeared in 14 games and has completed 265 of 464 passes for 2,652 yards with 16 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. His 269.5 yards per game this season places Bough second in the Big Ten.

Domonique Young, senior, wide receiver. Young leads the Boilermakers with 23 receptions for 279 yards. He had 8 catches for 136 yards in a loss to Cincinnati earlier this season.

Jake Replogle, junior, defensive tackle. Replogle has started 28 straight games. His 28.5 tackles for loss rank 17th in Purdue history. This season, he was named to three watch lists: The Bednarik, Lombardi and Outland.

ILLINOIS PICKS TO CLICK

Reggie Corbin, redshirt freshman, running back. In a shake-up of the offensive backfield, Corbin got his first career start last week at Nebraska and rushed for 72 yards on 9 carries. Assuming the depth chart remains the same this week, Corbin should get more carries against the Boilers. Keep in mind, however, that Ke’Shawn Vaughn had a career game against Purdue in West Lafayette last year.

Chunky Clements, senior, defensive tackle. Purdue comes to town with a beat up offensive line, something the senior Clements should be able to exploit. Though he’s been inconsistent, Saturday is an opportunity for Chunky to get on track. He has a knack for making plays behind the line of scrimmage, and should play a big role for the Illini in shutting down the Purdue rushing attack and collapsing the pocket.

Dawuane Smoot, senior defensive end. Smoot has faced double teams all seasons. After a lot of attention in the pre-season, Smoot doesn’t yet have the sack and TFL numbers that were expected. Still, he had career-high 8 tackles vs. WMU and Nebraska. Smoot is a mismatch physically for the Purdue tackles.

Nick Allegretti, sophomore, offensive guard. Offensive line play was much-improved in week four following the bye. Even though tackle Austin Schmidt was side-lined with an injury, there was more cohesion up front. Allegretti is a big part of that. He’s the best drive blocker on the team. Illinois should be able to run inside against Purdue.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT

Strong safety Patrick Nelson is all the way back from a torn ACL that sidelined him for his entire freshman season a year ago. Nelson got a surprise start last week against Nebraska, and he responded with a team-high 16 tackles.

“It was a tough process coming off of the ACL, but I had a lot of help from other players on the team who tore their ACL, and their family members,” Nelson said. “When I found out I was starting, I didn’t really believe it until I got out there on Saturday against Nebraska. It’s just a blessing coming off an ACL and starting.”

WHEN ILLINOIS HAS THE BALL

Illinois should be able to run the ball effectively against Purdue. Purdue ranks last in the Big Ten in rushing defense, allowing 226 yards on the ground per game. Opponents average 5.27 yards per rush, worst the league. In three games against FBS opponents, Purdue has yielded six rushing plays of 30 or more yards. Five of them came last week against Maryland. The Terps had runs of 76, 62, 56, 48 and 30 yards.

In last year’s game in West Lafayette, the Illini had two running backs with over 100 yards rushing. Ke’Shawn Vaughn had a break-out game with 180 yards and two touchdowns. Josh Ferguson added 133 yards on the ground, as Illinois rolled, 48-14. It will be interesting to see if Vaughn gets an opportunity to repeat his performance. He was relegated to third string last week behind Corbin and Kendrick Foster.

Could we see more of backup quarterback Chayce Crouch this week? Crouch got some token snaps against Nebraska, and the game plan was to use him a bit more. Wes Lunt wasn’t terrible against Nebraska and he added a dimension with a nice run to set up a field goal at the end of the first half. But too many drives have stalled, and Lunt now ranks No. 10 in the Big Ten in passing efficiency. If Garrick McGee wants to experiment with a running quarterback, this might be the week to try it out.

Illinois needs to score touchdowns when they get in the red zone. Kudos to sophomore PK

Chase McLaughlin, who is 5-5 on the season. But the Illini must find ways to punch it in. Its 83.33 red zone conversion rate vs. FBS opponents places Illinois in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten, but it’s a misleading stat. Illinois has just six red zone chances in those three games. That’s not good. The Illini scored five times, but had to settle for three field goals.

WHEN PURDUE HAS THE BALL

Purdue turns the ball over, something a more aggressive Illinois defense could take advantage of. Through the first four games, the Boilermakers have 11 turnovers and have a -1.25 turnover margin. Blough has thrown more interceptions (7) than touchdown passes (6). Five of his INT’s came in one game, a loss to Cincinnati. If Illinois puts pressure on Blough he will throw a lot of 50 / 50 balls.

Maryland held Markell Jones to 23 yards rushing on 12 carries last week (1.9 yards / rush). While Illinois likely won’t match those numbers, the Illini defense is beginning to establish an identity and Saturday is a chance to take another step forward. Purdue doesn’t run a lot of misdirection stuff, so the reads shouldn’t be complicated for leading tackler Hardy Nickerson, safety Patrick Nelson, et al.

A key for Purdue is putting themselves in makeable third down situations with either Jones on the ground or with the short passing game. The Boilers’ 3rd down conversion rate of 50.7 percent is one of the best in the league.

If Purdue airs it out – the Boilers have nearly 30 more passing attempts than any other Big Ten team - it could get interesting or it could get ugly.It would match an inefficient yet productive Purdue passing game vs. an Illinois pass defense that has struggled to get stops.And it would also give the Illinois pass rushers a chance to tee off. Purdue is putting up 286 yards per game through air.

KEYS TO THE GAME

Take it to the house - Illinois is unlikely to match Maryland’s explosive performance against the Boilermakers, but the Illini have running backs capable of chunk plays that finish in the end zone. Someone will break one. Will it be Corbin, Foster, or Vaughn?

The most important position - Quarterback play looms large. Illinois and Purdue are two of the worst teams in the nation in passing efficiency, ranked No. 91 and No. 108 respectively vs. FBS opponents. Who has the strongest game, Lunt or Blough? Who converts on 3rd down? Will Blough continue to throw it to the wrong team? And which defense can rattle the opposing QB?

The walking wounded – Both teams have key players who are dinged up. For Illinois, the status of defensive end Carroll Phillips and defensive tackle Jamal Milan is unknown for Saturday’s game. Both players suffered leg injuries against Nebraska. Purdue RB Markell Jones is playing with a hurt shoulder, and the Boilers’ offensive line is beat up.

One giant leap – The Illini made strides during the bye week and looked improved against Nebraska. Now they have to take a big jump forward against a beatable opponent and finish them off. There can’t be an emotional letdown following a few bad breaks at Nebraska.

Short field - Neither team has shown the ability to sustain and finish long drives. Turnovers, major penalties, and gaffs in the kicking game can put offenses in good field position – something Illinois has experienced this year to their detriment. Whichever team can punch it in wins the game.

PREDICTION

Purdue is on the road for the second straight week, and the Boilermakers are reeling after getting embarrassed at Maryland. Illinois showed improvement against Nebraska and have the home field. The Illini are the easy pick. We expect Illinois to be able to run the football this week, and that could open things up for play-action passes down the field. Still, neither team is an offensive juggernaut, which adds up to a one-score game.

Illinois 27 Purdue 21