MORE: Illinois game notes | Behind enemy lines | Five questions as Illini open B1G play
Illinois (1-2) opens its Big Ten Conference slate on Saturday as the Illini travel to Lincoln to take on No. 15 Nebraska (4-0). Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. CT with the game televised on ESPN2. Saturday's contest also marks the 2016 Homecoming game for Nebraska.
Coming off a bye last week, Illinois is looking to beat Nebraska in back-to-back years for the first time since 1923-24. Last year’s thrilling 14-13 win in Champaign was the Illini’s first against the Cornhuskers since 1924.
Nebraska enters the game with a 4-0 record, after opening Big Ten Conference play with a 24-13 victory over Northwestern on Saturday night in Evanston. The Husker offense was explosive in the victory, rolling up 556 yards of total offense, including 310 rushing yards.
NEBRASKA PLAYERS TO WATCH
Tommy Armstrong, senior, quarterback. Second-year coach Mike Riley has cut loose Armstrong in the running game and the senior QB has responded in a big way. He enters the game third in the Big Ten in total offense. Armstrong had a career-high 132 yards rushing last week against Northwestern..
Jordan Westerkamp, senior, wide receiver. A Chicago area product, Westerkamp put together one of the most prolific receiving seasons in school history in 2015. He had 65 catches for 918 yards and seven touchdowns. Westerkamp is the Huskers’ third leading receiver thus far in 2016, but has a team-leading five TD touchdowns. Alonzo Moore
Nathan Gerry, senior, safety. In 2015, Gerry was a third-team All-Big Ten choice by the league media, marking the second straight year he earned all-conference accolades. He was named Big Ten defensive player of the year in the Huskers2016 week 2 win over Wyoming
Ross Dzuris, senior, defensive end. Dzuris leads Nebraska and ranks 8th in the Big Ten with 5.5 tackles for loss. He had career-high two sacks and a career-high three TFLs against Fresno State, nearly topping the 2.5 sacks he had as a junior in 20. Dzuris was voted Nebraska’s most improved player following the 2015 season.
ILLINI PICKS TO CLICK
Ke’Shawn Vaughn, sophomore, running back. So far this season, Vaughn has been out-shined by Kendrick Foster, who is quicker to the line of scrimmage and seems to have better instincts. Illinois needs Vaughn to step it up, and there’s no doubt the Illini running back is feeling some pressure to do just that. Without an average or better running game, Illinois stands little chance to pull an upset.
Malik Turner, junior, wide receiver. Turner is the closest that Illinois has to a home run threat. He came up huge at the end of the Nebraska game last year, getting behind the defense and setting up the game winning touchdown. Turner leads Illinois with 15 receptions for 223 yards and three touchdowns.
Tre Watson / James Crawford, outside linebackers. We know who MIKE linebacker Hardy Nickerson is at this point. At the end of the day, he will be one of the leading tacklers in the Big Ten. Illinois needs the other guys to make plays against the read option. One popular way to defend the play is to crash down on the running back with the DE's, with the linebackers scraping off onto the QB. That’s where Watson and Crawford come in.
WHEN ILLINOIS HAS THE BALL
Illinois coaches were surprisingly candid when talking about Wes Lunt this week. They took a page out of the NFL coaches play book in trying to use the media to light a fire under Lunt, who has to start making plays instead of simply trying to avoid mistakes. Last week, the staff wasn’t happy with some throw-aways and dump offs. Lunt has to keep his eyes downfield, hang in the pocket, and try to stretch the field - take some shots and give Malik Turner et al a chance to make some big grabs.
It’s not all about Lunt. Last week, Illini gave a whole new meaning to the phrase 3 yards and cloud of dust (Illinois posted just 3 rushing yards the entire game).
Another pre-season pick to click has to break-out on Saturday. Sophomore running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn busted loose with a 65-yard touchdown early on against North Carolina. Take away that one highlight, and Vaughn has been pedestrian. He’s too talented and too integral to the success of the team for that to continue. Vaughn obviously needs help from the offensive line – a group that has struggled to find cohesiveness. Still, he has to start doing some things on this own – bouncing runs to the outside, squeezing through tight spaces - as all workhorse backs must do.
With the rise of the spread offenses, the time of possession stat is a bit of a dinosaur in college football. Still, Illinois trying to establish a running game and be balanced under OC Garrick McGee, so it’s worth a glance. At 29:39, Illinois ranks No. 60 in the nation and No. 10 in the Big Ten in time of possession vs. FBS opponents. This week, the Illini must be able to run some clock and keep the Nebraska offense off of the field. Make-able third downs and a high conversion rate loom large. Again, so much is on the back of Wes Lunt.
WHEN NEBRASKA HAS THE BALL
Mike Riley is letting Tommy Armstrong be himself instead of forcing him to be a pocket passer. Against Northwestern he showed just how valuable he can be if he’s used as a true dual-threat. That’s problematic for the Illini defense. They haven’t shown the ability to stop the read option, and Armstrong is the best QB they will have faced running it. Signs point to Nebraska rushing for over 300 yards against an Illinois defense that yields 5.2 yards per carry (No. 107 in the nation).
We should assume DC Hardy Nickerson made some changes since the disaster against Western Michigan, both in personnel and the defensive calls. When the Illini get spread out horizontally, they have been extremely vulnerable. Nebraska throws a huge variety of running plays at you. Armstrong, three different running backs – including Terrell Newby, and the wide receivers all get touches in the running game. If Illinois loads the box, Nebraska has multiple receiving threats in Westerkamp, Alonzo Moore, and tight end Cethan Carter.
How often will Nickerson have the nickel defensive on the field, with DB Chris Harris in game. That set proved ineffective against the spread attacks of UNC and WMU. If three linebackers play the bulk of the snaps, which three linebackers will it be? Other than MLB Hardy Nickerson, expect some different guys to get a chance.
If there’s a glimmer of home for Illinois, it’s that the Nebraska offensive line is somewhat beat up. The Huskers have three upperclassmen scholarship offensive linemen in their two deep. Both starting guards Jerald Foster and Tanner Farmer went down with injuries last week. If the Illinois front four is to start living up to their pre-season press clippings, this is the week to do. They have to come after Armstrong from all angles and bottle him up. He’s hard to catch outside the pocket, and he’s extreme hard to tackle one-on-one.
KEYS TO THE GAME
Tommy trouble – You can’t stop him, you only hope to slow him down. Armstrong was a fish out of water in a passing attack last year. He’s playing as well as anyone in the B1G now that he’s a true dual threat.
Sustained drives – Illinois has no chance if they can’t move the chains, kill some clock, and keep the Nebraska offensive off of the field. That means a serviceable running game and big third down conversions from Wes Lunt.
Bye week adjustments – Illinois coaches had a plethora of game film to look at from UNC and WMU games. They should have learned a lot about their team and the individual performances. What personnel and strategic changes do they make vs. the Huskers?
Last line of defense – The Illini secondary can’t get burned for chunk plays, whether it’s long running plays, or passes over the top. The talented and experienced Nebraska receiving corps has a mismatch.
Ball security - Nebraska turns you over, with 10 take-aways through the first four games. The Huskers rank No. 8 in the nation in turnover margin heading into Saturday’s contest. The Illini have habit of giving up the ball deep in their own territory.
PREDICTION
Barring a dramatic transformation for the Illini after the bye week, it’s difficult to justify predicting anything but a comfortable win for Nebraska. Everything points in that direction; the Huskers offensive is rolling with Armstrong at quarterback, Illinois was embarrassed by Western Michigan at home, and Nebraska gets an additional emotional boost on Homecoming in a sold out, raucous Memorial Stadium.
Nebraska 42 Illinois 13