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Published Sep 16, 2016
Preview: Illini host Western Michigan on Saturday
Doug Bucshon  •  OrangeandBlueNews
Publisher

MORE: Illinois game notes | Behind enemy lines

Illinois hosts Western Michigan of the Mid-America Conference for an afternoon contest at Memorial Stadium on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 3:01p.m. CT, with the game televised on ESPNews.

The Illini are trying to bounce back from a week 2 loss to North Carolina 48-23 in front of a sell out crowd last Saturday at Memorial Stadium. Western Michigan is 2-0 on the season with wins over Northwestern and NC Central.

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ILLINI PICKS TO CLICK

Wes Lunt, senior, quarterback. Lunt knows he has to be better than he was against North Carolina. Although he talked about being a game manager, the Illini need more from his this week against a defense that loads up in the box.

Carroll Phillips, senior, defensive end. Phillips is off to a strong start in 2016 and is tied for the FBS lead with 6.5 tackles for loss. His athleticism will be a challenge for the Western Michigan offense line, and we expect to see Phillips in the offensive backfield often this week.

Malik Turner, junior, wide receiver. The Broncos start two redshirt freshmen and a sophomore in their secondary. While Turner and the rest of the receiving corps were bogged down against North Carolina, they should be able to get separation against the inexperienced Western Michigan DB's. Lunt will take some shots downfield to Turner. He leads all Illini receivers with six catches for 116 yards.

Hardy Nickerson, senior, linebacker. Double digit tackles is the norm for Nickerson, who has been even better than expected early in the season for the Illini. WMU will throw the 1-2 punch of Franklin and Bogan at the Illini defense. Nickerson will be up to the challenge.

WESTERN MICHIGAN PLAYERS TO WATCH

Corey Davis, senior, wide receiver. Davis is currently the active leading receiver in the FBS with over 4,000 yards. He’s the full package at wide receiver, with speed, hands, and physicality. Davis is a legit NFL prospect and one of the top receivers the Illini will face this season. They can’t let him run wild.

Zach Terrell, senior, quarterback. Terrell is one of the most accurate passers that the Illini will face this season. He has a career QB efficiency rating of 151.2, ranking ninth nationally. Terrell has completed 70% of his passes this season and is yet to throw an interception.

Jamuari Bogan, sophomore, running back. Bogan was named MAC freshman of the year in 2015, racking up over 1,000 yards and 16 TD’s. At 5-foot-7, 187 pounds, Bogan is an elusive scat-back who averages 6 yards per carry. He had 103 yards on 22 carries against Northwestern.

Taylor Moton, senior, offensive tackle. Moton graded out highest among all Outland Trophy Award Watch List members in Week 1 against Northwestern. He’s a massive force up front at 6-foot-5, 328 pounds.

Jarvion Franklin, junior, running back. An Illinois native, Franklin exploded on the scene in 2014, rushing for 1,550 yards and 24 TD’s en route to MAC freshman of the year and freshman All-American honors. He’s a power back that gains yards after contact.

Asantay Brown, senior, linebacker. Brown moved from safety to linebacker this year, and he leads the team with 15 tackles through the first two games. He’s a bit undersized, but Brown is a side-to-sideline defender.

WHEN ILLINOIS HAS THE BALL

Offensive coordinator Garrick McGee wants to establish the run. That’s well documented at this point. Still, the Illini should be able to exploit an inexperienced Western Michigan secondary. We expect Illinois to be balanced, but also anticipate some throws on running downs when Malik Turner et al have favorable numbers.

Some were critical of the Illini play-calling last week, thinking it too conservative. Illinois isn’t ready to be a power running team yet. The previous regime didn’t recruit to that system. We want to see them cut loose the passing game on Saturday. Getting early separation is a problem for this Illini receiving corps. That means Wes Lunt has to hang in the pocket longer, and also make some plays on the move.

Western Michigan is 2-0 and riding high behind a high-scoring offense that sports talented and explosive athletes at the skill positions. Still, the Broncos are vulnerable on D, allowing 5.6 yards per offensive play (No. 92 in the nation). If Illinois eliminates the unforced errors, they will consistently move the chains against Western Michigan. NC Central scored three touchdowns last week against the Broncos, a feat the Illini should easily be able to top.

The Illini are facing a WMU defense that pays a 3-man front, but loads up in the box and throws in a lot of run blitzes. You can burn them if the timing and play-call is right. The timing was off on the screen passes that Illinois tried last week, but screens should be more effective against the Broncos. Other throws to the full back, running back, and tight ends can also be effective at loosening things up for the running game behind Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Kendrick Foster.

WHEN WESTERN MICHIGAN HAS THE BALL

Both teams have their measuring stick games in the books. While the Illini sputtered against the Tar Heels, Western Michigan amassed 416 yards of total offense and controlled the time of possession in its week 1 upset of Northwestern. Any time a spread team holds the ball for 39 minutes, as WMU did in that game, it spells doom for the opponent. That win doesn’t look as impressive after the Cats fell to Illinois State, but it’s a B1G win nonetheless. This Broncos offense can move the ball and put up points against Power 5 opponents.

Wide receiver Corey Davis gets most of the ink, as he should, but WMU is balanced offensively with 278.5 yards per game on the ground, and 236.5 through the air. Even though the line up in a spread, the Broncos call nearly twice as many running plays as passes, which means stopping Davis on third down is a must. Jamauri Bogan is the speed back, and Jarvion Franklin has more punch between the tackles. Illinois has a slight advantage in the Franklin vs. Hardy Nickerson matchup. The outside runs are more of a challenge, with Illini corners not great at getting off of blocks.

Western Michigan will run behind massive right tackle Taylor Moton. Look for Illinois to run some stunts and show different fronts to negate Moton’s impact. They need to confuse him in his blocking assignments. Overall, Illinois is more athletic up front, but WMU has a Power 5-quality offensive line. Illinois will need to slow down the power running game and put pressure on WMU quarterback Zach Terrell. Terrell can run the ball a little, you have to contain him, but he’s not the same threat with his feet as Mitch Lubisky a week ago. DE Carroll Phillips, who leads the FBS with 6.5 TFL’s, is faster than Terrell.

Big plays weren’t part of the equation in WMU’s upset of Northwestern. The longest play from scrimmage was a 20 yard completion to Davis.That said, the Illinois defense currently ranks No. 70 in the nation in opponent’s long plays from scrimmage, yielding 27 plays of 10 yards or more in the first two games.Illinois safeties Taylor Barton and Julian Hylton are the last line of defense – they need to play better this week.

KEYS TO THE GAME

Film room. What corrections will the Illini make after watching the UNC game film? They needed to fix the unforced errors and some lack of cohesion on the offensive line. From the beginning, the Illinois coaching staff has touted their years of NFL experience. That comes in to play now as they try to fix what ailed them against the Tar Heels.

Bulletin board. Football is a game of emotion, and the Illini players should be unhappy about losing at home last week. And they should be even more unhappy about being considered an underdog in their own house vs. a MAC opponent; especially against a MAC opponent that is heavy on talent from the Land of Lincoln, and with a head coach who's personality begs for a beat down.

Quarterback play. All fingers pointed towards Wes Lunt following the loss to UNC. Such is the life of a quarterback, fair or not. His cool exterior may not reveal it, but Lunt seeks redemption. He’s a home-grown talent who many expected to be a future NFL draft pick. If he plays like it, Illinois can roll. On the other side, Zach Terrell is yet to throw an interception this season.

Bombs away? Not quite, but Illinois should be able to pick on the inexperienced Broncos’ secondary. Run the ball and stop the run was a key last week. This Saturday, the running games of the two opponents will offset. The Illini have to make some plays through the air, especially on third down. The Western Michigan defense is schemed to stop the run. Okay, so take what they give you (and then some), as Wes Lunt said in the presser this week.

Dancing with the stars. Which teams' stars shine the most on Saturday? Western Michigan has a dangerous weapon in Corey Davis. He can’t win the game by himself, but he can sure try. Zach Terrell is an accomplished QB, and running back Jamauri Bogan is hard to pin down. The Illini’s biggest stars are on defense in Dawuane Smoot and Hardy Nickerson.

PREDICTION

The Western Michigan offense certainly scares you – they have multiple weapons, experience, and a solid offensive line to anchor it. The win over Northwestern was no fluke. The Broncos simply beat them. We think the Illinois offense gets rolling this week, however.

The Illini sink the boat and put away the Broncos 31-24. Illinois improves to 2-1 headed into the Big Ten opener at Nebraska on Oct. 1.