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Published Oct 21, 2016
Preview: Illini having daunting task at No. 3 Michigan
Doug Bucshon  •  OrangeandBlueNews
Publisher

MORE: Illinois game notes | Behind enemy lines

With the Vegas line soaring to Michigan -40, the Fighting Illini have the daunting task of facing the No. 3 Wolverines in Ann Arbor on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. CT with the game televised on BTN.

The two schools will renew their Big Ten rivalry for the first time since 2012; 45-0 victory by Michigan at the Big House. The Wolverines have a 69-23-2 record against the Fighting Illini and are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. Saturday is Homecoming for Michigan.

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MICHIGAN PLAYERS TO WATCH

Jabrill Peppers, junior, linebacker. Peppers is one of the top players in all of college football and a Heisman Trophy candidate. He has played multiple positions on defense, lined up at wide receiver and running back, and is an explosive weapon in the return game. Peppers is Michigan’s second-leading tackler with 38 stops, 10 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks and one forced fumble this season.

Jake Butt, senior, tight end. A pre-season All-American, Butt was named to watch list for the John Mackey Award and Maxwell Award. His is the team’s second-leading active career receiver with 115 receptions for 1,372 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Chris Evans, freshman, running back. Team’s leading rusher with 48 carries for 400 yards and three touchdowns this season. Tied for second on the team with three rushing touchdowns this year. Led Wolverines with 153 rushing yards on 11 carries at Rutgers.

Chris Wormley, senior, defensive end. Posted 101 tackles in 44 career games of action; registered 29 tackles for loss and 16 sacks during his career. Named to the watch lists for Bronko Nagurski Trophy and Chuck Bednarik Award. 2016 Preseason All-America selection.

ILLINI PICKS TO CLICK

Kendrick Foster, junior, running back. Foster has broken out as a junior and is now the most consistent ball carrier for the Illini. His best quality may be that he finishes his run, rarely going down after initial contact. Foster is a competitor, and could be the most valuable player on the Illini offense.

Jamal Milan, freshman, defensive tackle. The most physical gifted of the Illini’s interior defensive lineman, Milan continues to improve and gain confidence as his playing time increases. He forced two fumbles last week against Rutgers.

WHEN ILLINOIS HAS THE BALL

Rumors aside, no one will know for sure until game time who starts at quarterback for the Illini. Injuries to Wes Lunt and Chayce Crouch meant No. 3 QB Jeff George Jr. got starter’s reps in practice. Expect some new wrinkles from OC Garrick McGee. The Illini inserted Trenard Davis at QB in the wildcat formation at times this week.

The Illini running game began to show signs of life when Foster and Reggie Corbin moved up the depth chart. They now form a 1-2 punch, with Foster getting the carries inside the tackles and Corbin on the stretch plays. Much of this success has come against mediocre rushing defenses at best. Michigan is at and elite level stopping the run, yielding just 2.86 yards per carry.

The Wolverines lead the nation in six defensive categories and are second in two others. Whoever plays quarterback for the Illini will be under duress. Michigan has 24 sacks through its first six games, ranking No. 1 in the nation in sacks per game. Worley and his running mate at defensive end Taco Charelton will bring the heat. Michigan has the nation’s best defensive line, giving the Illini OL its biggest challenge of the season.

WHEN MICHIGAN HAS THE BALL

U-M has been a balanced offensive unit this fall, averaging 255 yards per game on the ground and 215 yards passing. And they put big time points on the board, leading the Big Ten in scoring at just over 50 points per game. Michigan’s 470 yards per game ranks second in the conference to Ohio State.

So how does Illinois slow them down? The Illini will have to win the turnover battle by a sizeable margin to have any chance to keep it close. It’s a longshot at best. While Illinois has 13 takeaways this season and an overall +8 turnover margin, the Wolverines do a remarkable job taking care of the football. Quarterback Wilton Speight has thrown just two interceptions, and Michigan has lost just two fumbles.

Eight different players have scored rushing touchdowns for Michigan this season. Evans is explosive, averaging 8.3 yards per carry. De’Von Smith is the workhorse, and former Illinois prep star Ty Issac has 53 carries for 299 yards. It’s an embarrassment of riches. There isn’t one guy Illinois can focus on stopping to impact the outcome.

KEYS TO THE GAME

Mystery man - Who plays quarterback for the Illini?

Take-aways - Illinois could possibly keep it close if they somehow manage a +3 turnover margin.

Kill the clock – Run the ball effectively, move the chains, and shorten the game.

Score first – Michigan can put this game away before halftime. Big plays early for the Wolverines will snowball into a blowout.

PREDICTION

The athletes on the Michigan defense are scary, and the numbers are scarier. Michigan just doesn’t give up much, either on the ground or through the air. Illinois wills struggle to move the football. The Illini defense will put up a fight, but they will be on the field all afternoon and will wear down in a hurry. This one is a mismatch. The keys to preventing a laugher are turnovers (always a key when facing a superior opponent) and the Illini running game. If Illinois wins the turnover battle, strings together a few first downs, and shortens the game, they can prevent the kind of drubbing that Michigan put on Rutgers.

Michigan 52 Illinois 10

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