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Published Dec 21, 2022
IL vs. MO: Braggin' Rights preview brought to you by the Illini Guardians
Doug Bucshon  •  OrangeandBlueNews
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GAME NOTES | SCHEDULE | ROSTER | STATS

The 42nd edition of McBride Homes Braggin’ Rights between Illinois and Missouri is set for Thursday night in St. Louis (8 p.m. CT, SEC Network).

Orange and Blue News previews the game, including keys to victory, probably starters, and a prediction.

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SETTING THE STAGE

McBride Homes Braggin’ Rights // #16ap/16 Illinois (8-3) vs. Missouri (10-1)

Dec. 22, 2022 // 8 p.m. CT // St. Louis, Mo. // Enterprise Center

TV: SEC Network – Tom Hart (Play-by-Play), John Sundvold (Analyst)

Radio: Busey Bank Illini Sports Network – Brian Barnhart (Play-By-Play), Deon Thomas (Analyst) // SiriusXM 134/195, SXM App 957

GAME NOTES

Illinois is No. 16 in the current AP poll, its highest ranking entering Braggin’ Rights in St. Louis in 10 years (No. 10, 2012). The Illini were No. 6 in the game two years ago held at Columbia, Mo.

The Illini (8-3) and Tigers (10-1) are a combined 18-4, the best Braggin’ Rights record heading into the game in St. Louis since 2013 when the programs were a combined 19-2.

Overall, the Illini own a 33-19 all-time edge in the series, including a 26-15 advantage in St. Louis. Illinois earned an 88-63 win last season, ending a three-game winning streak for Mizzou.

Illinois leads the Braggin' Right series 26-15. The Illini are 13-7 against Missouri when ranked. Illinois returns just seven of 88 points from last year’s Braggin’ Rights win (Coleman Hawkins-5, RJ Melendez-2).

ABOUT MIZZOU

Five Tigers are currently scoring in double figures with graduate transfer D'Moi Hodge leading the way. Hodge leads MU with 16.4 points per game – the second-highest total by a Tiger in his first year at MU during the shot-clock era.

Seniors Kobe Brown and Noah Carter are right behind with 12.9 and 11.6 points, while also leading Mizzou with 5.7 and 5.0 boards respectively

Graduate student Nick Honor adds 11.1 points to go with a team-best 3.4 assists.

Mizzou ranks fourth nationally with 88.4 points per game, while allowing 75.0 on defense.

The Tigers currently lead the country with 12.7 steals per game, while placing sixth overall by forcing 20.1 turnovers per game.

Four players that followed Coach Gates to Missouri from Cleveland State. Players with past Division I experience and in their first year at Mizzou are accounting for 78.1 percent of its points and 66.7 percent of rebounds.

PROJECTED STARTERS

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI

Skyy Clark, 6-3, guard, Fr. | 8.1 PPG | 3.9 RPG | 2.1 APG

Terrence Shannon Jr., 6-6, guard, Jr | 17.8 PPG | 5.5 RPG | 2.7 APG

RJ Melendez, 6-7, forward, Soph. | 8.0 PPG | 3.3 RPG | 0.6 APG

Matthew Mayer, 6-10, forward, Sr. | 9.2 PPG | 4.4 RPG | 1.2 APG

Coleman Hawkins, 6-10, forward, Jr. | 9.5 PPG | 6.1 RPG | 4.2 APG

*****

MISSOURI TIGERS

Nick Honor, 5-10, guard, Grd. | 11.1 PPG | 3.4 APG

Tre Gomillion, 6-4, guard, Grd | 5.4 PPG | 3.1 RPG | 2.4 APG

D'Moi Hodge, 6-4, guard, Grd. | 16.4 PPG | 2/7 SPG

Ronnie DeGray III, 6-6, forward, Jr. | 2.0 PPG | 2.0 RPG

Kaleb Brown, 6-7, forward, Soph. | 12.9 PPG | 5.7 RPG | 2.3 APG

*****

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KEYS TO THE GAME

TRANSITION DEFENSE

Missouri will try to turn it into a track meet. Illinois will be happy to run with them - the Illini are a good fast break team - but it obviously can't give up layups and wide open threes in transition.

The Tigers had 26 fast-break points, forced 20 turnovers, and dominated the defensive glass in their 88-84 win over Wichita State. That's the formula they want to follow.

Missouri hasn't a played tough schedule, so the stats are a bit skewed, but they play at a very high 74.6 possession pace and15.3 seconds per offensive possession. .

TAKE CARE OF THE BALL

If Illinois takes care of the basketball it can limit transition opportunities for Mizzou. The stats favor Missouri. The Illini rank No. 296 in the nation in turnover rate (17.9).while Missouri ranks No. 11 in the nation in opponent turnover percentage (22.9).

The Illini's 0.96 A/TO ratio ranks13th in the Big Ten, an indication of poor execution on offense. Coleman Hawkins has been playing a point-forward role, but he has a team-high 31 turnovers through the first 11 games. Illinois might want to make an adjustment. They are not a good passing team right now.

DON'T SETTLE FOR THREES

The Illini have been settling for 3's, including taking 27 from beyond the arc against Alabama A&M, a marginal opponent. With a big size advantage against the Tigers, Illinois needs to get the ball inside.

Kansas blew Missouri out of the gym 95-67 by getting to the rim. The Jayhawks scored 46 points in the paint and shot 57% from the floor. While Illinois shouldn't pass up open jumpers, they need to push the ball into the paint, whether it's the entry pass to Dain Dainja or off the bounce.

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THE MATCHUP

IN THE RANKINGS
Illinois has a 69 % chance of winning according to kenpom.com.
TEAMAPCOACH NETKENPOMSAGARIN

ILLINOIS

16

16

26

19

11

MISSOURI

NR

NR

65

60

70

PREDICTION

ILLINOIS 79 MISSOURI 68

Other than the loss to Kansas in lopsided fashion, Mizzou hasn't been tested. The Tigers’ schedule ranks No. 355 in the nation by Sagarin. Illini opened as a 5.5-point favorite.

I see Illinois bouncing back from a couple of shaky performances offensively and winning the battle on the glass. Effort won't be an issue in a rivalry game. Illinois cruises in the second half behind a good performance from Terrence Shannon Jr.

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JOIN THE ILLINI GUARDIANS

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The Illini Guardians NIL Collective was created specifically to meet that challenge, provide opportunities for University of Illinois student-athletes to give back to their community, and keep the Fighting Illini competitive on the field, on the court, on the course, or wherever they participate in their sport.

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